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Mark54's Comments Page 5,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]
The bigger issue is that we are running out of buyer that have capital and a risk appetite for taking on the institutions that will fail. There will be buyer all day for banks up to 5 billion maybe even 10 billion. But it will be difficult for institutions that are larger. Apparently Colonial Bancorp (25b) is on the doorstep of closure by the Alabama state regulators. I have no clue what bank is going to step up and take this one on. Regions, SunTrust, JPM, PNC, Citi,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and the others are out of the market. The FDIC is stuck with this one. The additional capital for these banks is actually a bailout for the FDIC.
Aug 11 11:07 PMI dont agree with the pay increases but lets get something clear,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]. The treasury injected capital into the financial system as a whole via TARP. They did this to 1) restore confidence in the system and 2) no identify the exact banks that need the capital. the alternative was inject capital into a select number of banks that needed and basically have the depositors make a run on the bank,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]. the increases in 07 and 08 comp perhaps should be repaid. "Clawback". I love that word.
Aug 5 09:33 PMcommunity banks operate leaner than the big banks. The CFO wears many hats as Chief Accounting Officer,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Investment Officer, Investor Relations, Compliance Officer and Risk Officer. They are regulated by either the OCC,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Fed or state and the FDIC. The FDIC examines once a year and the state and federal once a year. Consuming on average 3 months of the year. CRA exams are at least once every three years. Not to mention four call reports during the year. Now add the CFPA. I wonder why they oppose this.
Aug 3 09:00 PMAgreed. this too much of a black box. How is Wells a loss to this point? Granted they are not reserving enough and making money off refis that not a going to be there in a quarter or two,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but they are making money and building capital. TARP was not perfect but we could not stand by a let the financial system crumble due to a lack of confidence. I am more interested in the realized losses. On Jul 29 08:31 AM Angry Banker wrote:> What a load of malarkey. Ethisphere estimate of a loss of $1,300> per household is an UNREALIZED loss. In other words, it's like saying> I bought a share of AAPL at $175, but now that it's worth $160, I> have lost $15. But until I sell it,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I don't actually have a loss.> If the stock goes over $175, I will then have a gain. Plain vanilla derivatives that have low price volatility. It has an A- rating and is posting 100mm in collateral because its positions are net underwater and all the ABC counterparties that are in the gain position want ABC to do something like escrow securities to minimize the risk of loss if ABC should go under. Now S downgrades the company to BBB+. With that action ABC now contractually has to post 200mm of collateral against the losses in the book. Keep in mind these are paper losses but it has to find 100mm more acceptable collateral. Now lets assume these are exotic derivatives. 10%+ price moves in a day. So then in any one day ABC now may need to find 20mm (maybe more) to post. Now lets assume they get downgraded again and the cycle continues. The ratings based CSA grids are used mitigate loss in the event of a default but in tail events may actually increase the probability of a greater loss. Chew on that Black Swan pate'
Jul 29 10:20 PMThe fact is Larry Summers scares me like Jason did in the first Friday the 13th but here are 2 basic observations:1) Nina Monk questions why these swaps weren't "canceled". I guess Larry could have put on a cancelable swap but were they perhaps vanilla swaps. If it is a plain swap that $1b loss is on purely a paper loss. No cash. Why would they unwind a vanilla swap and realize a cash loss on the unwind rather than letting it ride if it truely was a hedge,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych].2) I guess the real question is,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]. "was this a hedge or a bet?" Yes she describes it as a "hedge" and it smells like a hedge. locking an interest rate on a borrowing. And if this was in fact a bet I see a 2020 maturity cited somewhere. there will be plenty more before its over.
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