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Six intuitions you should not trust
Even though you haven't taken the invisible gorilla test,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], you've probably heard of it. It consists of a short video of two teams of scholars getting around when they pass basketballs. The idea is to count the number of passes made by one team while ignoring those produced by the other.
Roughly half of those who go ahead and take test neglect a person dressed like a gorilla who strolls into the core players and beats its chest at the camera. The viewers are concentrating so difficult on counting the passes that they're blind to the unexpected,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], even though it is staring them hard.
This book is as simple as the psychologists who devised that experiment (see Gorilla psychologists: Weird stuff in plain sight). Their purpose is to show how easy it is to overlook stuff that are right in front people when we're not looking out for them, and just how illusions and distorted beliefs bring us astray every single day.
inattentional blindness (neglecting to see stuff that are in plain sight);
the fact that our memories are more reliable than they're,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],[link widoczny dla zalogowanych];
the tendency to consider someone is competent when they are confident;
the illusion of data (we know much less than we think),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych];
the assumption that stuff that occur together should be causally related (think MMR vaccine and autism),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych];
and the increasingly popular notion that cognitive exercises make us smarter (actually, physical exercise has a much stronger effect).
Some of these biases happen to be widely discussed,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but it is worth reading them again for the clarity with which Chris Chabris and Dan Simons explain them as well as their talent to make them highly relevant to everyday situations.
They demonstrate, for instance,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], how over-confidence in one's abilities can be hilarious inside a talent show contestant or perhaps an incompetent criminal caught on camera, but worrying when it dissuades other members of a group from sharing their very own - less confidently held but nonetheless important - opinions. Failures of attention,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], they note, are increasingly relevant because of our reliance on fast-response technologies such as cars and cellphones. A delay of a tenth of a second in noticing surprise event is of little consequence when walking, however when driving could kill you,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], or another person. Which makes even more salutary the discovering that talking on a cellphone triples our chances of missing something unexpected (such as a gorilla among a group of basketball players).
Chabris and Simons use science and anecdotal evidence so effectively in explaining all of this that three days after reading their book I feel confident in saying it has changed my life,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]. Surprisingly the more confident you're at the capability to multitask the worse at it you're.
I suppose there only using anecdotal evidence because it is more memorable and convincing than science. It's not the opposite of science. It's non-scientific. It's not against science; it is simply not scientific evidence. In fact,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], anecdotal evidence often plays a huge role in science and in society. It frequently provides researchers with types of exceptions to an existing rule, theory,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], or hypothesis, which takes a reinterpretation of existing experimental evidence and suggests areas for future experimentation and examination. In the pharmaceutical world,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], a large part of adverse events for any given drug begin as anecdotal evidence from patients, which spur further investigation of their validity and typically convince ultimately be correct in
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